Standard Chartered: $1 Trillion Could Shift From EM Banks to Stablecoins by 2028
Standard Chartered believes a wave of capital could leave emerging market banks for crypto over the next three years, forecasting that more than $1 trillion may shift into stablecoins by 2028 as demand for dollar-linked digital assets accelerates. In a report published Monday, the bank’s Global Research team said it expects adoption to speed up as payments and other core financial services continue migrating from traditional banks to non-bank platforms.
The bank argues that the rapid uptake will be most pronounced in emerging markets (EM), where consumers are increasingly turning to stablecoins as a functional proxy for U.S. dollar bank accounts. Because these tokens maintain a one-to-one peg to the greenback, they give users a way to dollarize savings and transactions when access to U.S. currency or reliable local banking is limited. Standard Chartered noted that stablecoin ownership has already been more prevalent in EM than in developed markets (DM), indicating the shift is likely to deepen in countries facing currency volatility or weak financial infrastructure.
Quantifying the potential outflow, Standard Chartered estimates that stablecoins held as savings in EM could expand from about $173 billion today to roughly $1.22 trillion by 2028. That jump implies that approximately $1 trillion could exit EM banking systems and reappear in crypto-based dollar instruments in just three years. The report also highlighted a set of more vulnerable countries—those with fragile reserves, high inflation, and sizable remittance inflows—as the most at risk of deposit flight, pointing to their current deposit bases as a gauge of potential stress.
Two-thirds of stablecoin supply already sits in emerging markets, according to the bank’s analysis. In its view, the largest disruptive effects will likely materialize where access to U.S. dollars has traditionally been constrained by capital controls, underdeveloped FX markets, or banking sector fragility. Stablecoins, by contrast, offer always-on, borderless access to a synthetic USD balance, facilitated by global crypto wallets and exchanges. The report adds that this perceived safety may be reinforced by U.S. policy proposals such as the GENIUS Act, which the bank says would require stablecoins to be fully backed by dollars—thereby creating an instrument many users view as carrying lower credit risk than deposits in local banks.
This dynamic, Standard Chartered warned, raises the likelihood of sustained deposit outflows from EM banking systems into crypto alternatives, especially during episodes of currency pressure or political uncertainty. The bank estimates that a substantial portion of existing stablecoin balances are already parked in savings-oriented wallets across EM, rather than being used solely for trading or speculation. The pull factors are strongest where inflation erodes purchasing power and where remittances—often sent in dollars—can be instantly converted into stablecoins for storage or spending.
Venezuela offers a vivid example of this ongoing shift. With the bolivar’s value heavily impaired and annual inflation estimated between 200% and 300%, consumers and merchants have increasingly adopted stablecoins both for daily transactions and as a store of value. Prices are frequently denominated in USDt (USDT)—colloquially dubbed “Binance dollars” by locals—underscoring how dollar-linked tokens have displaced the bolivar in much of everyday commerce. Chainalysis’ 2024 crypto adoption report ranks Venezuela 13th globally and records a 110% year-over-year increase in crypto usage. The adoption spans small family-run shops to national retailers and entertainment venues, many of which accept crypto via platforms such as Binance and Airtm. In 2023, crypto represented 9% of the country’s $5.4 billion in remittance inflows, illustrating how digital dollars are becoming a parallel financial rail for cross-border payments and household savings.
Beyond Venezuela, Standard Chartered points to rising dollarization via stablecoins in Argentina and Brazil, where households and businesses are increasingly using USDC and USDT to hold value and transact in an effort to blunt inflation’s impact. Payment acceptance is broadening, and, according to Fireblocks, stablecoins already account for about 60% of crypto transaction volumes in both countries. This behavior aligns with the bank’s thesis: when local currencies are unstable or access to physical dollars is constrained, digital dollars fill the gap—cheaply, instantly, and with fewer frictions than traditional banking channels.
The bank’s researchers emphasize several structural drivers behind the trend:
– Non-bank payment networks are becoming core financial infrastructure, especially in markets where banking penetration is low or service quality is uneven.
– Crypto wallets and stablecoin rails offer 24/7 settlement, improving cash flow management for merchants and households.
– Tight capital controls and dollar shortages make stablecoins an attractive workaround for both savings and commerce.
– Perceptions that fully backed stablecoins carry lower credit and liquidity risk than deposits in local banks can accelerate deposit flight during stress.
For EM policymakers and banks, the implications are significant. If deposits move at scale to stablecoins, local banking systems could face higher funding costs, tighter credit conditions, and greater sensitivity to swings in global dollar liquidity. Conversely, consumers and businesses would gain faster, more reliable access to dollar-denominated balances, potentially improving remittance efficiency and inflation hedging at the household level. Standard Chartered suggests that countries with high inflation, weak FX reserves, and large remittance corridors are most exposed to these shifts.
Industry advocates argue that clear rules could mitigate risks while preserving benefits. A recent commentary from a Multicoin executive framed the GENIUS Act as a potential turning point for consumer protection—asserting it could end what they called a “banking rip-off” by ensuring strong backing and transparency for payment stablecoins. Regardless of the final regulatory pathway, Standard Chartered’s research indicates that market forces are already pushing toward greater use of dollar-pegged tokens in EM, and that traditional banks will have to adapt to a world where a growing slice of payments, savings, and cross-border transfers happens outside their balance sheets.
Taken together, the bank’s projection—up to $1 trillion leaving EM banks for stablecoins by 2028—captures both the speed and scale of the shift underway. As stablecoin rails deepen and on/off-ramps mature
